Why prices will be lower in a year?
Thailand signed an agreement with Japan for what concernes import taxes on vehicle imports, including motorcycles. The agreement portion concerning bikes was based on import taxes slowly being phased out for motorcycles imported from Japan with 10% tax left this year and falling off in 2016.
This agreement had absolutely nothing to do with ASEA, as a matter of fact it was entered long before ASEA came into effect...also...ASEA has a small effect on import taxes for vehicle imports into Thailand, the major import tax brakes come tied to establishing manufacturing in Thailand.
We know that several companies including BMW, Ducati and Benelli (just to name a few) established manufacturing and assembly facilities in Thailand and as such are benefitting from serious import tax reductions (and in some cases no import tax at all). The fact that these tax reductions are only partially passed down to the consumer is a decision that lies entirely with the manufacturer...and its Thai importer in some cases (i.e. BMW Thailand which is an autonomous entity...that's why so many got screwed here with BMW Motorrad GMBH unable to make up for it...at least in Thailand)
Market decisions are based on many factors some of which include adapting to the local mentality and social dynamics. If BMW wants to keep its status of exclusivity (hi-so machines cannot suddenly drop in price) they can only reduce pricing slowly and to a limited extent. Benelli, which has been working with local firms and Chinese companies for longer, needs to proceed in bigger strides to re-establish the market base which it had lost, hence the biggest price drops to date of the European manufacturers and a warranty policy to inspire the confidence to actually capture the market that the lower pricing attracts...
But overall, the market in general cannot drop prices by 50-60% over night...just remember one of the discussions I had over at GTR with some people that were ready to lynch me just for suggesting that prices will see a serious reduction...because they were of course concerned about the residual value of the metal piles they so much overpaid for...
Yamaha came out with the MT line to regain a loosing market share as the company had started pricing itself out of the market with its costly bikes...hence the MT line (and related R15 and R3 cousins). The MT-09 went from 490k on its launch to 430k earlier this year to 390k now...the MT-07 went from 380k to 340k and now to 290k. The cost of these "run of the mill" machines has not changed yet the sales price has dropped by 20% in a year...this to me is a clear sign that, unlike some other brands that want to remain very exclusive, Yamaha is slowly adjusting its sales prices to a normal market dynamic. This also suggest to me that, at least as far as the MT line is concerned, the prices will see near US and Europe levels within a foreseeably reasonable time of the last tax portion falling off. That being the case, sales prices of "special" beauties, like the WR450, cannot become increasingly unbalanced and will have to be adapted as well even if not as low as the big volume sellers.
This will also affect the sales price of gray importers that will have to adapt by reducing their margins. All in all they will still be happy to provide you with the service of going through the trouble of getting a bike road legal for you even if you bring it in on your own (as long as you follow procedures correctly and bring a machine that can pass emission standards...everything else is details). As I mentioned Red Baron still has a couple of Suzuki DR400s in his show room...and also as mentioned, I have seen several road legal (with plate and green book) YZF(WR)250 and 450 as well as CRF450 available in the market...those interested can surely go dig and find out where as you are definitely better then me with google (but no...I don't believe Red Baron has any of those right now...but I also never said he did have any...)
That is why I have been suggesting to people to take their time for now...and why I still say prices will go lower yet and balance out somewhere on a reasonable level within the next couple years. Just my opinion of course.